REMARKS TO THE DELEGATION -California Republicans and Abortion Issues
Updated: Apr 16
Remarks to the Delegation
March 11, 2023 Sacramento CA. Thomas Cole
This is the full text of a shortened nomination speech made to 900 delegates at the CAGOP Spring Convention in Sacramento, CA. There was not an immediate agreement on the abortion issue.
“So the strategy is; Moderate to gain a voice in the government. Then work in the government to regulate abortion, to bring our view that it could be safe and rare.”
"Attacking 80% of your neighbors as murderers will not get anyone closer to heaven.”
“This notion that we on the right, must order the left around is religious zealotry. And I propose it’s not even based upon the words or works of Jesus.”
"Can we plead with our religious right to help us move a few centimeters to the center? It's likely our only path to re-unite the old, winning, CAGOP."
"California Republicans and Abortion Issues are a tricky combination". "My 30 pieces of silver"
1) Dear Delegates - I’m Thomas Cole, a political writer and strategist.
My basic point is we must become strategic in getting votes or continue losing. CAGOP -
We must bring the tiger.
2) To bring that tiger and win more CA districts and win in statewide elections, we must convince all the Independents/NPP's and a few Dems to join us. That is a FACT. Because CA is 25% republican, 26% NPP and 50% Democrat. We need to flip these voters.
3) This flip can only happen on a few issues because Dems don't flip on inflation, open borders, drugs, gas prices, housing, voter fraud, law and order or corruption. The Democrats seem to like corruption. It’s seen as a necessary means to their ends. They just don’t care.
And so I identify three issues they do care about, that we can win votes on. Parent issues, Medical Freedom and Abortion.
4) Parent Issues- The Numbers The parent issues, like no porn in school, stopping the gender training and anti America CRT…promise to bring a likely 20% flip to the CAGOP. Parents, grandparents, aunts, uncles are the group of Independents and Dems that will flip parties as shown by the Youngkin election which we analyzed. (see link below). In that VA Governor election debate, Terry McCaullife said parents should stay out of the school issues, and then lost 20% of his Democrat base overnight. 20% of the Virginia Democrat base of 50% is 10% points +Republicans and 10% minus Democrats.
5) In CA, a likely 20% flip Independents/Democrats on the parent issue would mean 20% of 70% (CA D+NPP) and that equals 14% points to the CAGOP and subtract 14% from the left. So this adds up to some real numbers. For instance If Brian Dahle had hammered this parent issue, the Youngkin theory says Senator Dahle would have gained 14%, putting Dahle at 54% and and Newsom at 46%. Out of there. These numbers are based on the Youngkin model which actually happened in VA 2021.
As Mike Pompeo said, the most dangerous person in America is Randy Weingarten of the national teachers union, who pushed for jabs, school closures, stopping vouchers and huge raises for teachers and admins to stay home, not teach and suppress any voucher systems or home school candidates.
And our great convention candidate Soo Yoo has shown, this path is filled with party flipping, energized parent voters. We should study this parent voter model and scale up Soo Yoo’s methods in reaching them.
6) Medical Freedom - This issue brings in all the disenchanted Dems and Indy’s who were forced to quit jobs, or had their kids forced to quit school, or leave or take an experimental drug. While being forced to sign away all rights to sue if someone dies, as many have.
This issue combines parents issues, my body-my choice issues with basic freedom and fairness issues. And Fairness is one of the very top issues for Democrats. They see state forced injections as being unfair.
7) Many democrats and NPP's see they were treated unfairly by CA Dem governments, with lockdowns, business and church closings, school closures and failures.
Many Dems and NPP’s now see the light. And note that 38% of Evangelicals vote D in CA. Reaching out to them should be easy, they're already mad. So this is how issue targeting works - We are cutting into their voter base with focused, thought out strategies. Issue targeting is an efficient strategy to flip voters.
8) Flipped voters count 2X as much as new R voters, because a flipped D voter subtracts from the Dems and adds to the GOP. And these people are already voting, and NPP’s are not even sure what party they belong to, and they are not against republicans on many issues. But for one issue, abortion, that keeps many NPP voters and JFK Dems away from even listening to any of our GOP ideas. The left has adopted abortion as their sacrament, their religious litmus test.
The GOP could modify its stance on abortion to gain a foothold with independents and JFK Dems. This is a big issue because so many on the left have adopted abortion as a new religion- and thus the question for any candidate left or right is - Are you pro choice? That is the left's religious test. We could push for the accepted European model, where they ban abortions after 12 weeks, as a reasonable limit.
10)Abortion Newsom/Dahle Debates If we think abortion is not a big issue with Independents and Dems- We analyzed the Dahle/Newsom debate minute by minute, issue by issue. In that debate Gov Newsom swabbed the deck with the abortion issue. Making sure all the voters knew that Brian Dahle was “Against women's reproductive right..”
Four different times in one debate, Newsom hammered Brian Dahle and it cost Dahle the race in our opinion. As a pro life candidate this is what happens in CA. Gentlemen farmer Dahle did pull a 40% against Newson, meaning somehow, Senator Dahle got 60% of the Independents to vote for him, despite Dahle's pro life stance.
So the fact is only 60% of CA NNP’s (Indy's in CA = 25% and 15 points out of 25 points = 60%) and near zero Dems will vote for any candidate who does not at least agree the abortion issue is up to the voters in the state as Dobbs proscribes. We need 100% of the NPP's to get near a 51% to win statewide. Welcome to California politics.
Our great candidate Brian Dahle got 60% of the NPP's, which is like winning back the old GOP who split off to become NPP's. And we feel he could have further refined the Gentleman Farmer vs City Slicker race, and hammered Newsom for the french laundry incident and all the other elitist gaffs Newsom is guilty of.
11) The Dems are very protective of this Woman's reproductive rights issue and for good reason. Conservative candidates who say "I'm Pro Life" are finished. This is a very complex issue. The left has researched and knows the religious rights pull on the CAGOP. The left knows that a portion of our people are religious zealots that will never nominate a pro choice Republican… And so our accepted candidates are always at an immediate 65% disadvantage out of the gate. Can we plead with our religious right to help us move a few centimeters to the center? It's likely our only path to re-unite the old, winning, CAGOP.
The left has laid traps for us through education, indoctrination, teachers unions, and other government unions, media, movies, everywhere. Their people are brainwashed and loving it. For the left, abortion is the Alamo. And the left destroys our people out of the gate with this issue. So voters never hear about our good ideas, our steady support of freedom. We are the party of freedom, except for this abortion thing.
12) So what if we take this issue off the table?
13) Religious Right Demands the Left Obey
Our CAGOP CRINO's (Christian Right In Name Only) demand that we all order the left around, demand their child bearing women to not get abortions, demand their older feminists, their academics, their thought leaders, their college kids… We demand!
”If you get pregnant, you are going to have that baby by God” is our commandment.
14) This is like the left trying to tell us “You will have an abortion if we tell you to!” If the left somehow got Chinese-like control over the State and started forcing abortions on our people for reasons like climate change, necessity, over-population or wrong social beliefs… We would absolutely flip. How dare you. Well. This is how the left feels about our abortion prohibitions. And the left is based on feelings.
This belief that we on the right, must order the left around is religious zealotry. And I propose that it’s not even based upon the words and works of Jesus.
16) Nowhere in the New Testament does Jesus order anyone to do anything other than things like;
“In everything, therefore, treat people the same way you want them to treat you, for this is the Law and the Prophets.” (Matthew 7:12).
“Then render to Caesar the things that are Caesar’s; and to God the things that are God’s.” (Matthew 22:21).
‘YOU SHALL LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOR AS YOURSELF.'” (Matthew 22:39).
“A new commandment I give to you, that you love one another, even as I have loved you, that you also love one another.” (John 13:34)
“Do not judge, or you too will be judged. For in the same way you judge others, you will be judged, and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you.” (Matt 7:1-2)
Jesus recommends we don’t kill people, and that we treat others how we would like to be treated. But Jesus does not go around ordering people to attack those with different views. That is the opposite of what Jesus taught. Instead we are to shine a light upon them and try to help them. Jesus as Son of God, Son of Man brought a religion based on freedom and choice, forgiveness and salvation.
17) Our whole nation and Constitution are/were based upon freedom, religious freedom, family freedom, choice, individual rights with individual consequences. Jesus did in effect say - “If you make the wrong choice there may be consequences - but not in this world and not by the hand of man.”
Therefore we cannot and should not force the left to conform to religious expectations that some of us may have.
18) We as a political party cannot order the left around on the abortion issue and expect them to ever listen to us. That is why we are 20% vs 80% in CA right now. And there is no good reason to order the left around. Not religious or secular. No reason to think we can successfully order the left to do anything. This is America and we do not, for the most part, order people around on religious issues.
19) Religious Consequences
The religious consequences for the left's love of abortion are to be had in another world. But it’s not up to us to enforce those religious consequences upon them as some kind of punishment. Not in this world. That is God's work and we in the CAGOP are not God.
20) And that’s why I say - The all or nothing abortion strategy is a loser.
What we need is to get a foothold back into CA legislative power.
Then, with a foothold we can say "Hey Democrat candidate, can we at least not sell baby parts on the market this week?" And can we at least not cull them on delivery? Would that be OK with you??" These questions do resonate with many independents and dems who think it has gone too far. But we need to get a foothold to even speak.
“Let your light shine before men in such a way that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father who is in heaven.” (Matthew 5:16).
21) Moderate to gain a voice in the government.
So the strategy is; Moderate to gain a voice in the government. Then work in the government to regulate abortion, to bring our view that it could be safe and rare. And at the same time continue work to provide options, adoptions, birth control for teens, teach birthing age females how to count so they can successfully take the right amount of pills. And tell the parents about these issues, ask permission to teach birth control to birthing age females and to males about responsibility, kindness, the golden rule. These are the good things that religion has brought us. We can inculcate these attributes into our secular government, without triggering the left. But we cannot expect the left to bow down to our religious demands, or any demands. Not going to happen. No matter how right we think we are.
22) What Jesus Said About Abortion - Nothing.
23) Jesus on Gay Marriage - Jesus spoke of the “marriage between a man and a women” and not a word about gay marriage. Not good, not bad, indifferent, nothing. And Jesus had a talent for embracing the outcasts of society, tax collectors, prostitutes, drunks and maybe gays… all welcome to the Jesus big tent.
In the Old Testament gays are condemned as going straight to hell. And New Testament Paul echoes this same line.
And so we thank goodness for the temperance of Jesus' words in the New Testament. The words of Jesus are mostly about forgiveness, kindness, acceptance, reciprocity, to not judge lest you be judged. And that should be our religious rights touchstones, if we want to make friends. CRINO's mellow out!
24) Todays Gay CAGOP - Different than Abortion?
For instance our modern CAGOP has rightfully managed to embrace the Log Cabin Republicans. And more than a few of our leaders, up to the very highest reaches of the CAGOP have said they are gay and have gay marriages. And none of these openly gay people have been removed from the CAGOP. Not shunned, not censored, nor stricken from the party. And so why is abortion treated differently? Hypocrisy?
Abortion has existed during Jesus’ time and before. It’s a sad, perhaps vile practice, yet if a woman needs to not be pregnant, she will get an abortion one way or another. And if a political group like the GOP tells her; You will have that baby by God… she will never vote for that group. We need to back off, and tell the women..
Your right to abortion is inviolable.
And then - do what we can to provide options, regulate, control and make abortion as Clinton said, “safe and rare” or at least less common.
25) Abortion Today in CA
In CA there are 8,024,00 birthing age women aged 15 to 45. And there are about 132,680 abortions per year, which is about 363 abortion per day including weekends. This gives a rate of 1.6 abortions per 100 birthing age females per year. So if you know 100 women in that age group, chances are 1.6 of them are getting an abortion within a year. Is that too many? Can we help lower that number? How? By yelling at them?
26) Bottom line;
We first must get freely voted into power to have a voice. We can be the voice of reason. People are looking for a voice of reason. And so - Render unto Cesar what is Caesar's and unto God what is Gods. Let us agree to the reality that right now, we have no control over abortion in CA. Especially since the Dobbs decision, which sent abortion issues back to the States. And we are in California. So we need to back off some on the blanket prohibition stance, which brings nothing but electoral loss. And moderate our stance to one of: We would like to offer options, offer birth control, offer adoptions and offer kindness and civility. Even to those we may think of as enemies, and again, Jesus would say make amends where you can, work towards understanding and accommodation. Attacking 80% of your neighbors as murderers will not get anyone closer to heaven.
27) Conclusion - Those three issues of Parents Rights, Medical Freedom and Abortion Moderation form a Coalition for Liberty that looks like 25% new voters added to our paltry 24% of CAGOP voters. With that new set of voters, we are able to compete in CA’s political world.
28) I am trying to show an actual path, a plan and strategy to win votes. And that is what matters at the end of the day. It can be done. Winning votes to gain a voice to have influence. Otherwise we have no voice and that is what 20% - 80% we have today in the CA legislature looks like.
Are we waiting for a 10% - 90% CA?
29) Proxy Voting
And one more thing. Can we expect new voters to be excited about being Republicans, when our own delegates can’t bother to show up?
Proxy voting discriminates against
in-person voting, and harms minority rights within our party, creating animosity, mistrust and rancor. This we don’t need.
30) The GOP was founded upon the protection of minority rights, lest we forget. We Republicans freed the slaves from the Democrats. We wrote and voted in the 13th 14th & 15th freedom amendments, and wrote and voted in the 1960’s civil rights amendments - All against Democrat votes in congress.
And so proxy voting, like mail in voting, is prone to fraud, abuse and coercion. Let’s eliminate the proxy trade, and make our own elections more open and fair to our minority districts and for the sake of togetherness.
In Liberty Thomas Cole
Sacramento March 10, 2023